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IPCC CLIMATE MODELS LESS MEANINGFUL THAN ZERO CHANGE FORECASTS

September 3, 2009: "Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making", a paper to be published in International Journal of Forecasting. by ICSC Advisors, Dr. Kesten C. Green of the Business and Economic Forecasting Unit at Monash University, Vic 3800, Australia and Professor J. Scott Armstrong, of The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, U.S.A. and Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

"Using the IPCC warming rate for our demonstration, we projected the rate successively over a period analogous to that envisaged in their scenario of exponential CO2 growth—the years 1851 to 1975. The errors from the projections were more than seven times greater than the errors from the benchmark method. Relative errors were larger for longer forecast horizons."

Read the whole paper. 

Read today's press release from the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, "Global warming legislation would fail", that references this paper and includes quotes from the authors.

Visit Armstrong and Green's forecasting site. 

Visit the Science and Public Policy Institute, the organization for which Dr. Soon is Chief Science Adviser.

 
LEARN ABOUT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CLIMATE DEBATE

February 11, 2015: The Institute of Public Affairs is proud to publish Climate Change: The Facts 2014, featuring 22 chapters on the science, politics and economics of the climate change debate. Climate Change: The Facts 2014 features the world’s leading experts and commentators on climate change. Highlights of Climate Change: The Facts 2014 include:

Ian Plimer draws on the geological record to dismiss the possibility that human emissions of carbon dioxide will lead to catastrophic consequences for the planet. Patrick Michaels demonstrates the growing chasm between the predictions of the IPCC and the real world temperature results. Richard Lindzen shows the climate is less sensitive to increases in greenhouse gases than previously thought and argues that a warmer world would have a similar weather variability to today. Willie Soon discusses the often unremarked role of the sun in climate variability. Robert Carter explains why the natural variability of the climate is far greater than any human component. John Abbot and Jennifer Marohasy demonstrate how little success climate models have in predicting important information such as rainfall.

Read whole summary and order book.

 


 
AUSTRALIAN JOURNALIST CRITIQUES PRESENTATION BY IPCC CHAIR

November 8, 2008: "Truly inconvenient truths about climate change being ignored", by Michael Duffy, The Sydney Morning Herald, Australia.

"Last month I witnessed something shocking. Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was giving a talk at the University of NSW. The talk was accompanied by a slide presentation, and the most important graph showed average global temperatures. For the past decade it represented temperatures climbing sharply.  As this was shown on the screen, Pachauri told his large audience: "We're at a stage where warming is taking place at a much faster rate [than before]". Now, this is completely wrong."

Read the whole piece.

Watch the whole presentation from Dr. Pachauri.  The temperature graphs discussed are near the beginning of the talk.

Check out actual global temperatures for yourself (source: Web site of Dr. Ole Humlum, Professor of Physical Geography at the Institute of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway).

 
TELL ONTARIO PREMIER WYNNE WHAT YOU THINK OF A CARBON TAX!

February 14, 2015: The Ontario Government invites public feedback on their Climate Change Discussion Paper:

Comments are invited from the public by completing the following form:

http://www.ebr.gov.on.ca/ERS-WEB-External/searchComment.do?actionType=add&noticeId=MTI0Mzcz&statusId=MTg3MjY0&noticeHeaderIdString=MTI0Mzcz

Comments may also be given in person at public consultation meetings throughout February and March at the following locations and times:

https://www.ontario.ca/environment-and-energy/climate-change-consultation

Ottawa, for example, has its public consultation meeting on March 11 at the RA Centre at 2451 Riverside Dr. between 6:00 and 8:00 pm.

CLICK HERE TO SHARE WITH ICSC THE COMMENTS YOU SEND TO THE GOVERNMENT AND, WITH YOUR PERMISSION, WE MAY PUBLICIZE YOURS IN OUR WRITINGS AND MEDIA INTERVIEWS!


 
PRESENTATION BY ICSC SCIENCE ADVISORY BOARD MEMBER DR. TIM BALL

January 11, 2015: "Dr. Tim Ball - The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science," environmental consultant and former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg (founded the Rupertsland Research Centre).  Now residing in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

Watch Dr. Ball's presentation. Click on box to the lower right of the window to switch to full screen.

Learn about and order Dr. Ball's new book, "The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science."


 
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